The Azerbaijan-Armenia Conflict and the Historic Peace Agreement of 2025
For nearly four decades, the South Caucasus has been a region scarred by conflict, with Azerbaijan and Armenia locked in a bitter dispute over the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh. This longstanding feud, rooted in historical, ethnic, and geopolitical complexities, has claimed tens of thousands of lives, displaced countless communities, and perpetuated a cycle of mistrust and violence.
However, on August 8, 2025, a historic breakthrough was achieved when the leaders of Azerbaijan and Armenia signed a U.S.-brokered peace agreement at the White House, marking a significant step toward ending one of the world’s most intractable conflicts.
The Roots of the Conflict
The Azerbaijan-Armenia conflict centers primarily on Nagorno-Karabakh, a mountainous region internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan but historically populated by ethnic Armenians. The roots of the dispute trace back to the early 20th century, when the collapse of the Russian Empire and the subsequent incorporation of the South Caucasus into the Soviet Union created competing national claims over the region. During the Soviet era, Nagorno-Karabakh was designated an autonomous oblast within Azerbaijan, but ethnic Armenians maintained cultural and political aspirations for self-determination.
Tensions erupted in the late 1980s as the Soviet Union began to dissolve. Ethnic Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh, supported by Armenia, sought independence or unification with Armenia, triggering violent clashes. The First Nagorno-Karabakh War (1988–1994) resulted in Armenia gaining control of Nagorno-Karabakh and surrounding territories, displacing hundreds of thousands of Azerbaijanis and leaving an estimated 30,000 dead. A fragile ceasefire brokered by Russia in 1994 halted large-scale fighting but failed to resolve the underlying issues, leading to periodic skirmishes over the decades.
The Second Nagorno-Karabakh War in 2020 marked a turning point. Azerbaijan, bolstered by advanced military technology and support from Turkey, recaptured significant portions of the territories lost in the 1990s. The conflict ended with a Russian-brokered ceasefire, but tensions persisted. In September 2023, Azerbaijan launched a swift offensive that brought Nagorno-Karabakh fully under its control, prompting the mass exodus of nearly 100,000 ethnic Armenians to Armenia. This military victory shifted the regional power dynamics and set the stage for renewed peace negotiations.
The Path to Peace
The road to the August 2025 peace agreement was paved by a combination of diplomatic efforts, geopolitical shifts, and pragmatic leadership. For years, negotiations mediated by the OSCE Minsk Group—co-chaired by Russia, France, and the United States—yielded little progress. Russia, traditionally a dominant player in the South Caucasus, positioned itself as a mediator and security guarantor, but its influence waned due to its military overreach in Ukraine and growing distrust among regional actors.
The United States, under President Donald Trump, seized the opportunity to fill this vacuum. Beginning in 2023, U.S. diplomats engaged in intensive shuttle diplomacy, facilitating direct talks between Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev and Armenia’s Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. A significant breakthrough came in March 2025, when Armenia agreed to Azerbaijan’s proposals, including the withdrawal of legal claims in international courts and the exclusion of third-party mediators like Russia from the process. These concessions paved the way for the finalization of the “Agreement on the Establishment of Peace and Interstate Relations Between the Republic of Armenia and the Republic of Azerbaijan.”
The Peace Agreement: Key Provisions
The peace deal, signed on August 8, 2025, at the White House, represents a landmark achievement in the South Caucasus. Its key provisions include:
1. Cessation of Hostilities: Both nations committed to permanently halting all military actions, ensuring no further territorial claims or actions to undermine each other’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.
2. Normalization of Relations: The agreement establishes diplomatic relations, opens borders for commerce and travel, and fosters mutual respect for each nation’s sovereignty. This marks a significant departure from decades of closed borders and severed ties.
3. The Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity: A flagship component of the deal is the creation of a transit corridor through Armenian territory, linking mainland Azerbaijan to its exclave of Nakhchivan, which borders Turkey. Dubbed the “Trump Route,” this corridor will operate under Armenian law but with U.S.-led development rights, attracting investment from American companies for infrastructure projects such as railways, oil and gas pipelines, and fiber optic lines. The corridor is expected to boost regional trade and energy exports, positioning the South Caucasus as a vital hub.
4. Bilateral U.S. Agreements: The United States signed separate deals with Azerbaijan and Armenia to enhance cooperation in energy, trade, and technology, including artificial intelligence. Additionally, long-standing U.S. restrictions on defense cooperation with Azerbaijan, imposed in 1992 due to human rights concerns, were lifted, signaling a deepening of ties.
5. Dissolution of the OSCE Minsk Group: The agreement effectively sidelined the Minsk Group, reflecting a shift away from Russian influence and a preference for U.S.-led mediation.
Regional and Global Implications
The peace agreement has far-reaching implications for the South Caucasus and beyond. For Azerbaijan, the deal consolidates its 2023 military gains, secures a strategic land bridge to Turkey, and enhances its role as a regional transport and energy hub. For Armenia, the agreement offers an economic lifeline through access to regional trade networks, potentially alleviating its isolation and dependence on Russia.
Geopolitically, the deal represents a significant blow to Russia’s influence in the South Caucasus. Moscow, which has long viewed the region as part of its sphere of influence, was notably absent from the negotiations and signing ceremony. The agreement’s U.S.-centric framework, coupled with the exclusion of Russia, has drawn sharp criticism from Moscow, with Russian state media accusing Armenia of compromising its sovereignty. Iran, another regional power, welcomed the agreement but expressed concerns about foreign intervention near its borders, highlighting the delicate balance of interests in the region.
The deal also underscores a broader shift in the South Caucasus toward Western alignment. Azerbaijan’s deteriorating relations with Russia, exacerbated by the downing of Azerbaijan Airlines Flight 8243 in December 2024, and Armenia’s growing frustration with Moscow’s inability to secure its interests have pushed both nations toward the United States. The agreement’s focus on U.S.-led infrastructure development further cements Washington’s role as a key player in the region.
Challenges and Criticisms
Despite the optimism surrounding the peace deal, significant challenges remain. In Armenia, the agreement has sparked mixed reactions. While some see it as an opportunity for economic growth, others view it as a capitulation to Azerbaijan, particularly given the loss of Nagorno-Karabakh and the perceived one-sided concessions. Critics, including Aram Hamparian of the Armenian National Committee of America, argue that the deal “normalizes ethnic cleansing” and fails to address the plight of displaced Armenians. The memory of the 2023 offensive, which involved a brutal siege and forced displacement, continues to evoke painful comparisons to the Armenian Genocide of 1915–1923.
In Azerbaijan, the agreement is broadly celebrated as a diplomatic triumph, but opposition figures caution that lasting stability depends on addressing lingering issues, such as the reintegration of displaced communities and the management of the new transit corridor. The involvement of U.S. companies in the Trump Route has raised questions about transparency and local participation, with analysts warning that uneven economic benefits could fuel resentment.
The long-term success of the agreement hinges on sustained U.S. engagement and the ability of both nations to overcome decades of mutual distrust. Without proper implementation, including mechanisms to address grievances and ensure equitable development, the peace could falter, as warned by regional expert Olesya Vartanyan.